Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter - Phoenix Business Journal:

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Tom Traynor, an economicxs professor at Wright Stater and author ofthe report, said unemployment increases will continuse at their accelerated pace into the third quarter of this year. The Dayton Metropolitan Statisticaol Area, which includes Montgomery, Greene, Miami and Preble counties, is projectedr to lose 6,000 to 7,0090 jobs in the thir quarter. That would drop employment to 373,900, down from 380,40o in the first quarter of the year, a 2 percen decline.
The hardest-hit area is one the Daytom area has longrelied on, “Manufacturing employment will fall substantially,” Traynor Forecasts from the report show employment in the sector falling from 42,300 in the firs quarter of this year to 36,100 by the third a nearly 15 percent Durable goods manufacturing will be hit in Traynor said. “People aren’t spending. They are waitingh to buy a new car or thatnew appliance,” he Retail and service employment are also expectef to decrease. Retail employment is expected to dropto 39,100 by the thirds quarter, down from 40,000 in the firsrt quarter, a 2 percent drop.
Service which includes financial service, business utilities and leisure service, is projected to decrease to 324,20p0 by the third quarter, down from 326,700 in the firs t quarter, a nearly 1 percenyt decline. “The next year to year and a half will be an unpleasanft time forthe region,” Traynor said. Construction employment is expectesd to rise as a part ofseasonao employment, to 13,400 from 11,40p in the first quarter, but that is 1,00o jobs fewer than the same time period last One area of employment that isn’rt expected to be hit hard is healthb care.
In fact, Traynor said he expects health care to add some jobs by thethird quarter, going up to 56,500 from 56,300 in the firsy quarter. He said the rate of declinde in gross domestic productwill slow, but remain negative throughg the third quarter and maybe into the fourtjh quarter of this year. Even when GDP does become positive again, it will take some time for employment to pick up becauses it is a lagging indicatoe of economic recovery. Traynor said there is a greaft deal of uncertainty still on the national as businesses try to determine the impact of government actions.
Traynor said the problem of high unemployment is not going awayanytime “This is something we’re going to be living with for quitre a while, well into next year,” he said.