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RevPAR will reach its cyclical low point in the thir d quarterof 2009, closing the escalating trens of declines in RevPAR that began in the thirde quarter of 2008, according to . "The good news is that the bottokm of the current cycle forthe U.S. hotel industr is soon to arrive,” said R. Mark Woodworth, presidenyt of PKF Hospitality Research, in a news “The bad news is that 2009 will be the weakest year on recorde for the domesticlodging industry, and 2010 is going to be disappointinbg as well. If you are wondering when we'll start to see actual growtyin RevPAR, then you'll have to wait until 2011.
if you want to know when the operatingh environment is going to get a littleless that's happening right now." Lodging forecasts presented in the June 2009 editio of Hotel Horizons are based on Smith Travel Researchu hotel performance data through Marchh 2009 and Moody's Economy.com'z May 2009 economic forecast for the nation. Given the correlatiohn between employment andlodging demand, the new expectationm is for RevPAR to decline 17.5 perceny in 2009, followed by anothed 3.5 percent decline in 2010. Year-over-yearf quarterly declines in the demandfor U.S.
lodgingt accommodations started in the firs t quarter of 2008 and peaked at negativer 8 percent in the first quarterof 2009. The June 2009 edition of Hotel Horizons forecasts demand to decline each of the remainingg quartersof 2009, but at a diminishingg pace. The projected quarterly declines in demand for the remainderd of 2009 averagejust 4.7 percent. Beyond 2009, the forecasty calls for average annual increases in demanxdof 3.2 percent for the next four well above the 1.9 percen t long-term average. But given the forecasg 17.5 percent decline in RevPAR for allof PKF-HR is projecting total hotel revenues to decreaser 16 percent for the year.
In 2011 and PKF-HR forecasts that RevPAR will increase on an average annua l basisof 9.2 while profits will rise at a 17.8 percent
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